The latest update of global freight data collected by the International Transport Forum at the OECD through April 2013 indicates that the overall picture for global freight continues to be uncertain.
The overall picture for global freight continues to be uncertain in the EU27 and the United States. Imports remain below pre-crisis levels (June 2008), whilst exports to Asia remain high, increasing the dependency on Asia- and export-led growth.
Total external trade by sea falls back to the level of 2009 in the USA (13% below pre-crisis levels) while trade in the EU27 stagnates at the June 2008 level (-1% compared to June 2008).
Air freight, considered as a lead indicator, suggests further uncertainty for economic growth both for the United States and Europe. Total trade by air has remained below the June 2008 level (-5% and -7% respectively) since early 2012.
Sea freight data indicate weak import demand both in the EU and the United States. Imports by sea (in tonnes) remain below pre-crisis levels in the EU27 (-10%), whilst imports by sea in the United States declined further (-25%).
Recent data on inland freight transport by road and rail contribute to a sense of weak domestic activity. Rail freight volumes (in tonne-kilometres) were stagnant in Q4/2012 in the USA and the EU area (5% and 9% below the 2008 peak). Road freight volumes fell further in the EU area to 15% below the 2008 peak, the lowest figure reported since 2008.
Although Asia, and more specifically China, remains the locomotive of growth, there are signs of a slowing down. China's imports by sea from North Atlantic economies have declined since mid-2012.